300 Cr: Ready To Be Breached!

If not Krrish 3, then Dhoom 3. If not Dhoom 3, then PK. But it’s only a matter of time that a new Hindi film crosses the 300 cr nett mark at the domestic box office. 3 Idiots breached the 200 cr mark almost four years ago. The domestic box office business has grown by more than 100% since then. If 3 Idiots released this December, it would have comfortably crossed 300 cr, if not 350. 

If the market is indeed ready, why has no other film managed to do achieve this feat yet? Simply because nothing else has come even remotely close to 3 Idiots in terms of audience appreciation. The films that scored high on Word Of Mouth (WOM) in the last two years have been somewhat ‘alternative’ films like Bhaag Milkha Bhaag, Aashiqui 2, Kahaani and Barfi. To cross 300cr, you need a 20-25 cr opening day (at least) and a WOM of 75+ (3 Idiots was 90, Chennai Express 60).

None of the big openers in recent times have managed to cross a WOM of 70. The gap between the WOM of 3 Idiots and the likes of Dabangg 2, Ek Tha Tiger, Chennai Express and Yeh Jawani Hai Deewani is wide enough to create a 100 cr divide in today’s times.

The ‘masala entertainer’ genre has officially died with the poor performance of Boss. Salman Khan will see it through with Jai Ho and Kick, where he will hope to cross the 200-mark for the first time. But even he is shifting genres with Sooraj Barjatya’s film. Even the best masala entertainers cannot score 75+ on WOM, simply because they don’t engage well with the female audiences (and hence the families) and have little repeat (or lingering) value. Even Dabangg, arguably the best in the genre, touched only 66 on WOM.

That leaves us with three strong candidates for 300 cr – Krrish 3, Dhoom 3 and PK. All three will comfortably open above 20 cr, with 25+ being a distinct possibility for all of them. So, the first barrier is crossed. While not much is known about PK, all three should be ‘family-inclusive films’, though Dhoom 3’s appeal is relatively more youth-centric.

Now that leaves us with just one condition – content that’s worthy of strong Word of Mouth and repeat value. For repeat value, one would need sufficient sprinkling of emotional content, which Dhoom 3 is unlikely to offer. In Krrish 3, presence of emotional content is certain, but if the action overpowers it, the impact may be muted.

So, if I had to pick one of the three, I’d pick PK, based purely on the strength of its director’s past work. A non-festive release is the only deterrent, but 3 Idiots showed how a strong WOM film can keep going for weeks. But I’m certainly not ruling out Krrish 3 and Dhoom 3 at this stage. In five days time, there will be enough evidence to take a more informed view on one of them.

Like I have always said, 300 cr means less than 3 cr theatre footfalls. In a country of 130 cr people, that’s a minuscule base in an industry that’s called a religion. Let’s get over and done with 300 cr soon, so that we can start thinking about the next milestone: 400 cr.

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About Shailesh Kapoor

Founder & CEO - Ormax Media. Film Lover. Media Insights Detective. Budding Author. Lifelong Student.
This entry was posted in Box Office, Films. Bookmark the permalink.

17 Responses to 300 Cr: Ready To Be Breached!

  1. Vijay says:

    How do you calculate WOM ?? based on colls from Weeke 2 Week drops ??

    • No, it’s based on consumer research, where those who have watched the film in a theatre are asked for their rating. Data for each film is collected for four weeks after its release.

  2. shreyash says:

    Krish is pretty low on marketing value which limits its chances of breaking a record …. The size of release might sail the movie but breaking CE record is still a distant dream …. Also dhoom with its action genre might find it difficult to break a CE benchmark …. CE being a masala genre with the combined power of SRK and Rohit helped it break the record … PK looks promising riding on Aamir and Hirani should be in a position to give CE a run for its money … But the content of the film would be the decider in it breaking 300 … The collections of the first week depends on cast n marketing but post that every film has a life of its own which decides it’s life lifetime collections

    • Krrish is NOT low on marketing, Shreyash.Maybe you haven’t seen the conventional marketing for it, but it has lots of tie-ups and is very visible across several channels, including kids channels. Ormax Cinematix scores for the campaign are the best of 2013 so far, ahead of Chennai Express.

  3. VIp says:

    300 crores is too much for krrish 3 and dhoom 3. They’re front-loaded films and most likely won’t generate a great enough WOM to do so. At most 250 crores. CE with an extra open week could have gone up to 250 crores though.

    Also, the masala entertainer genre hasn’t died, Sure besharam and boss failed but CE broke all records so it comes down to whether it’s a good or bad entertainer.

  4. Anonymous says:

    Krrish 3 cannot able to cross 300 or atleast 200 .. By seeing the promos can’t u understand Sir how worst the CG was and the trailer , songs & characters too .. It will have a great opening but it wont have a long run

    • Orko says:

      Hello dear, Krrish3 achived record breaking trailer view 17.5 million which greater than the sun of ETT & CE. Its stand world no3 after AVATAR, THE DARK KNIGHT RIDES & THE AVENGERS. If trailer was not promising them why this trailer they strome?

      Only Khan fan and Akki fan said K3 not break any records

  5. Akshay Kumar says:

    Krrish 3 cannot able to cross 300 or atleast 200 .. By seeing the promos can’t u understand Sir how worst the CG was and the trailer , songs & characters too .. It will have a great opening but it wont have a long run .

  6. jai ho is not a masala enteitaner its movie based on social cause … n seeing the hype of the movie even before the posters have not been released i thik it’s not right to predict that the film won’t cross 300 …………. n m sure abt this thing that krrish 3 will not & Dhoom 3 will not cross cross 300 because songs of krrish 3 r so bad n still dhoom 3 trailler have not been released

  7. Orko says:

    KRRISH3 WILL BE MEGA BLOCKBUSTER FOR SURE BECAUSE…

    (1) record breaking trailer view 17.2million which greater than the sun of ETT & CE. Its stand world no3 after AVATAR, THE DARK KNIGHT RIDES & THE AVENGERS. If trailer was not promising them why this trailer they strome?

    (2) bollywood biggest solo release of a biggest holiday season.

    (3) child_adult_old all over india like KRRISH

    (4) Hrithik back after long time after back to back hit ZNMD & AGNEEPATH

    (5) ORMAX_MEDIA:: krrish3 is the highest buzz film since 2011

    only KHAN die heart fan said not break CE records

  8. KUNAL says:

    jin jin chutiy0 ki krrish3 flop hoga our koi record nehi bana payega lag raha hai…. kripya apni behanno ko mere sath movie dekhne ka mouka de

  9. Dinesh says:

    300 crore seems too much for Krissh 3 and Dhoom 3 irrespective of their starcast and hype. They may at best reach very close to this figure but somehow miss it because of lack of repeat value and less emotional content as you rightly pointed out. PK looks like a probable candidate but only for Rajkumar Hirani. Its subject might not be as universally appealing as subject of 3 Idiots was. It is possible that portrayals on religion or superstitions might not go well with certain sections of the audience.

  10. javed says:

    i dont think krish 3 will do 300 cr….music is too bad. dhoom 3 have a chance and who knows may be Jai ho…

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