Expectedly, there has been enough speculation about what Ra.One’s opening weekend will look like. Genuine predictions on the domestic box office have ranged from Rs. 70 cr to Rs. 140 cr (domestic nett, five-days, Hindi version). Our number, using Ormax Media’s tool Moviescope, comes to Rs. 112 cr. Error margins tend to be about 10% in such predictions, which is this case means Rs. 11 cr!
Bodyguard, with a similar five-day weekend, netted Rs. 85 cr. So where will Ra.One get its incremental Rs. 27 cr from, assuming our prediction turns out to be true? From several components, listed below:
1. Rs. 10 cr incremental from a wider release – About 200 more cinemas than Bodyguard, and about four more shows per multiplex will give Ra.One an additional Rs. 10 cr, if everything else was the same.
2. Rs. 9 cr incremental from ticket prices increase – Ticket prices are up by an average of about 5-10% across centers. Further, the 600-odd screens showing the film in 3D have another incremental of about 20% over the 2D prices. All this adds up to about Rs. 9 cr.
3. Rs. 6 cr from the festive season impact – It’s Diwali! The festive mood and holidays will make an additional impact. Bodyguard had one holiday in the form of Eid. Ra.One has the Diwali day, and then the ongoing extended festive weekend, with many holidays across the country, and many people taking the rest of the week off. Even after removing the 26% drop in the Wednesday collection because of Laxmi Puja, we still get a Rs. 6 cr incremental because of the festive impact.
4. Rs. 2 cr from the incremental Buzz impact – Both Bodyguard & Ra.One have performed exceedingly well on Cinematix. However, Ra.One has the ever-so-slight edge, being a point or two ahead of Bodyguard. This should translate into an additional Rs. 2 cr.
So, these four add upto Rs. 27 cr. However, we have not accounted for the Word of Mouth (WOM) difference, as there is no way of knowing Ra.One’s WOM till it releases. Bodyguard scored an average 54 on our WOM Index, which measures the post-release audience response to a film. If it scored 67 on WOM, like Ready did, Bodyguard would have netted another Rs. 6 cr, and touched about Rs. 91 cr.
Depending on how Ra.One is received, you can expect a 5-10 cr upside or downside on our prediction. One thing that will work in favor of Ra.One’s WOM is that it is also coming in 3D. We have seen that 3D can give a much higher WOM than 2D for the same film. Now, this is an advantage Bodyguard didn’t have.