Ra.One vs. Bodyguard – Explaining the Rs. 27 crore incremental

Expectedly, there has been enough speculation about what Ra.One’s opening weekend will look like. Genuine predictions on the domestic box office have ranged from Rs. 70 cr to Rs. 140 cr (domestic nett, five-days, Hindi version). Our number, using Ormax Media’s tool Moviescope, comes to Rs. 112 cr. Error margins tend to be about 10% in such predictions, which is this case means Rs. 11 cr!

Bodyguard, with a similar five-day weekend, netted Rs. 85 cr. So where will Ra.One get its incremental Rs. 27 cr from, assuming our prediction turns out to be true? From several components, listed below:

1. Rs. 10 cr incremental from a wider release – About 200 more cinemas than Bodyguard, and about four more shows per multiplex will give Ra.One an additional Rs. 10 cr, if everything else was the same.

2. Rs. 9 cr incremental from ticket prices increase – Ticket prices are up by an average of about 5-10% across centers. Further, the 600-odd screens showing the film in 3D have another incremental of about 20% over the 2D prices. All this adds up to about Rs. 9 cr.

3. Rs. 6 cr from the festive season impact – It’s Diwali! The festive mood and holidays will make an additional impact. Bodyguard had one holiday in the form of Eid. Ra.One has the Diwali day, and then the ongoing extended festive weekend, with many holidays across the country, and many people taking the rest of the week off. Even after removing the 26% drop in the Wednesday collection because of Laxmi Puja, we still get a Rs. 6 cr incremental because of the festive impact.

4. Rs. 2 cr from the incremental Buzz impact – Both Bodyguard & Ra.One have performed exceedingly well on Cinematix. However, Ra.One has the ever-so-slight edge, being a point or two ahead of Bodyguard. This should translate into an additional Rs. 2 cr.

So, these four add upto Rs. 27 cr. However, we have not accounted for the Word of Mouth (WOM) difference, as there is no way of knowing Ra.One’s WOM till it releases. Bodyguard scored an average 54 on our WOM Index, which measures the post-release audience response to a film. If it scored 67 on WOM, like Ready did, Bodyguard would have netted another Rs. 6 cr, and touched about Rs. 91 cr.

Depending on how Ra.One is received, you can expect a 5-10 cr upside or downside on our prediction. One thing that will work in favor of Ra.One’s WOM is that it is also coming in 3D. We have seen that 3D can give a much higher WOM than 2D for the same film. Now, this is an advantage Bodyguard didn’t have.

About Shailesh Kapoor

Founder & CEO - Ormax Media. Film Lover. Media Insights Detective. Budding Author. Lifelong Student.
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12 Responses to Ra.One vs. Bodyguard – Explaining the Rs. 27 crore incremental

  1. what can be the worldwide gross of ra one in extended weekend……..and total worldwide gross….

  2. Can potentially gross USD 25 million over its lifetime worldwide. MNIK was about 21 million.

  3. aashkaran says:

    I think..
    Overseas would be atleast 30 mill ..
    It has double the cinemas in which mnik ws released + china 1000 print deal may come in..so I expect it to bombard overseas..might be 175+ too

  4. Yes, 30 million not ruled out. But depends on the initial response to the film.

  5. sushma says:

    great read. i think it would be interesting to do a post on how much and who (quant and qual) stand to lose if ra one is not received favorably. i think its clear that it cannot be a financial flop for srk, but i’m sure there are possible losers in this equation – and i don’t just mean distributors.

  6. Whats the latest news on 3d version? is it really delayed? and if it is how do you think the business will be affected over the weekend? also how bad would the public backlash be? thanks. gr8 blog btw.

  7. how is the publics verdict? also what results do your exit polls show so far?

  8. now that the first day is below expectations how much do you think the weekend will be considering the movie got some negative reviews and from peoples reaction?

  9. Bodyguard says:

    Every things have two kinds of benefit or bad habit. Every person give her personal review. Some body give good and some body give bad. This does not matter.

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