The Dhoom 3 campaign is only a trailer old. The film is about five weeks away from release. No songs have been released. There’s nothing substantive on-air besides the trailer. The paid TV campaign has not started.
But Dhoom 3 is already HUGE. In bold and caps. Here are three facts from Ormax Cinematix to explain this better:
1. For all of 2012, Dhoom 3 was the most-awaited film of 2013. This was at a time when many viewers were not even aware that Aamir Khan is the antagonist (more protagonist, actually) in the film. As the awareness about Aamir Khan increased, the gap between Dhoom 3 and other films, such as Krrish 3 and Chennai Express, as the most awaited film of 2013, kept widening.
2. From Aug 26 to Nov 1, we tracked the preference between Krrish 3 and Dhoom 3 everyday. Viewers were asked to pick one of the two films they were more excited about. Much of this time had the Krrish 3 campaign visible at high decibel, and no noise from Dhoom 3. Yet, the chart below shows the impact of Dhoom 3. 60-70% viewers consistently picked it as the film they are more excited to watch, between the two.
3. Ormax Cinematix is now 3.5 years old, and campaigns of more than 275 films have been tracked in this period. One critical parameter we track is Appeal, defined as the % aware audiences who have a definite intention to watch the film in the theatre when it releases. The Appeal score out of 100 is a reflection of the creative strength of the campaign, i.e., a mix of star cast, music, promos, concept, genre, etc.
The highest Appeal scores so far have been registered by Golmaal 3 (84 in Wk -3), Dabangg (83 in Wk 0) and Bodyguard (83 in Wk 0). Only two other films (Ek Tha Tiger & Ra.One) touched the 80-mark in at least one week.
Dhoom 3 first crossed the 80-mark in early September, 14 weeks before its release. It consistently hovered around 77-83 levels for two months, and then last week, it became the first movie ever to break the 90-barrier. With a Wk -6 Appeal of 91, Dhoom 3 has dwarfed all other campaigns in the last three years. And there’s not even a ‘campaign’ running as of now!
Box Office Prospects
Dhoom 3 releases on a normal Friday, Dec 20. It’s not a holiday on any account. Yet, the film has a very real chance of breaking the highest single-day record set by Krrish 3 on its fourth day recently. A weekend of 80-90 crore nett domestic box office is on, and with a holiday on Day 6 (Christmas), a first week of 140 crore looks real too. Which sets the film up nicely to be the highest earner in Hindi cinema history, and a potential 250 crore candidate.
If the content fails to deliver, these numbers may be out of reach within 2-3 days. But if the trailer is any indication, that’s not likely to happen.
So, be prepared for something spectacular. Dhoom 3 may rewrite more records that what you may have originally thought.