Box Office 2013 So Far: The Year Of The Youth?

Posted on April 28, 2013 by

It’s been a rather unusual year for Bollywood so far. We are four months into the year, and there has been not a single 100cr film yet. Race 2 has almost touched that mark, but most trade reports suggest its domestic lifetime nett business is around 95cr. Only one other film (Special 26) has crossed the 50cr mark.

There are three others in the 40cr range – Kai Po Che, Chashme Baddoor and Himmatwala. But the latter missed its target (at least the one proudly set by its director in various media interviews) by more than 100cr!

The 30cr club includes ABCD, Matru Ki Bijlee Ka Mandola and Jolly LLB. Aashiqui 2 should be entering this club for sure, making 2012 a year of many small victories but no real huge ones like Agneepath or Kahaani. The second half of the year is packed with some huge films, so there is more than enough material to correct that.

But what stands out clearly for me is the consolidation of the youth trend. Three films – ABCD, Chashme Baddoor and Aashiqui 2 – have managed to becomes prominent hits on the strength of young India’s theatre patronage. Kai Po Che at least had the urban elite, office-going crowds supporting it. But these three films have managed to achieve box office glory without any real support from the so-called “high-end multiplexes” or the critics. It has been “mass” success in every sense of the word.

Chashme Baddoor is the simpler of the three success stories. It’s a comedy after all, and the appeal this genre enjoys is fairly well known. But the other two films caught most trade experts off-guard. When we forecasted opening day box office in the 4-5cr range for ABCD and Aashiqui 2 about a month before their respective releases, there was a sense of disbelief. I must admit, the disbelief was not just in the industry, but within our office too.

Can ABCD actually cross 4cr on its opening day? It was releasing with Special 26, an Akshay Kumar film, and had no real star credentials to show. Unlike Aashiqui 2, it didn’t even have a chartbuster song. In the case of Aashiqui 2, the music was ruling the charts for two weeks before the release, but the starcast had no equity at all, not even the DID-led equity that the ABCD stars enjoyed.

But we stuck to the forecasts that Ormax Cinematix’s FBO model suggested, and the actual numbers were only a notch higher! Some trade websites forecasted 7-8cr weekend for Aashiqui 2 last week, which would suggest a first day of less than 2.5cr. On days like this, one realises the true power of consumer data!

There are two distinct aspects about this youth phenomenon that fascinate me. The first one is to do with WOM (Word Of Mouth). Our extensive understanding now suggests clearly that WOM spreads the fastest for youthful films, and the slowest for family films. So, a film like Aashiqui 2 can show growth over the course of the day on strength of the youth buzz generated from the morning show onwards, while the more family-inclusive Mere Dad Ki Maruti never really catches on instantly, and by the time the WOM picks up (eventually at a very good score of 61), it’s already Monday and the film is struggling to find audiences.

The second aspect of the youth phenomenon is to do with their content tastes. There has been a lot of stereotyping that goes about the youth only liking content that offers instant gratification, such as physical romance, item songs, college comedy etc. But ABCD proved that they can enjoy an inspirational story in equal measure. Aashiqui 2 has now proven that emotional love stories, especially when backed by melodious music, have a huge connect too. 

ABCD scored 72 on the WOM index (at par with Special 26 and two points ahead of Kai Po Che), while Chashme Baddoor is at 63. Aashiqui 2 scores will be out next week, and based on box office trending, should be fairly decent too. That ABCD is the joint leader on the WOM index so far this year is a great example of how the youth are willing to go beyond the frivolous and embrace the emotional and the inspirational, even when it comes without a starcast and with many execution flaws. The only non-negotiable element is “entertainment” (which is where Nautanki Saala struggled, with a WOM of 42 only, primarily because of its sluggish pace).

Yes, the young India will throng the theatres to watch Yeh Jawaani Hai Deewani and Dhoom 3 too. But it is their interest in non-starcast cinema that holds great business potential for filmmakers in Bollywood. You can actually come up with a subject that’s youth-relevant, and execute it with a wafer-thin budget and make 35cr+ with relatively low risk levels.

And Sajid Khan thought a Himmatwala remake was India’s youth idea of entertainment!

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High-decibel Launches, Low-decibel Ratings

Posted on April 21, 2013 by

Look around your city and you will be excused for believing that launching and watching new television programmes is a national pastime in our country. You encounter these launch campaigns on the streets, at malls and multiplexes, in public transport services, and of course, now on the internet.

Indeed, about ten new ‘promotable’ programmes launch every month. Out of these, about half belong to mass Hindi GECs, while others are split across language GECs (including English), youth and infotainment. These campaigns are reaching out to audiences across the country, given the increasing importance of small towns in the viewership mix.

But the opening rating of new launches tells a different story altogether. In 2009, serials like Yeh Rishta Kya Kehlata Hai and Laadli would open to staggering numbers, like 5-6 TVR (first week average). Over the last three years, this number has dropped significantly. Today, an opening of even 2.5 TVR (touched in recent past only by Zee TV’s Aaj Ki Housewife Sab Jaanti Hai and Qubool Hai) is considered as more than a positive verdict on the launch marketing campaign of a serial.

The launch ratings for serials are in sharp contrast to movie premieres and big-ticket reality show launches. Several films have rated 7+ TVR over the last two years in their first telecast.

Some of the serials grow to become 4+ TVR shows in 3-6 months of their launch. For instance, Diya Aur Baati Hum launched at 2.0 TVR in August 2011. It crossed the 3-level in October that year, the 4 & 5-levels in December, staying at there ever since, with only occasional dips.

Clearly, the audiences have not lost interest in the content. But the importance they are attaching to serial launches has reduced significantly. The role of ‘Word of Mouth’ (WOM) has increased dramatically as a result. The meteoric rise of Diya Aur Baati Hum from 2 to 5 TVR within four months was aided by smart scheduling and sustenance promotions, but was primarily led by positive audience WOM around the show.

Why are new serials consistently getting lukewarm audience reception? Some argue that it is difficult to compare 2009 numbers to those of 2011-13, but that’s not true. Before digitization and the recent LC1 expansion, the last major panel change at TAM happened in January 2008. For almost four years, the universe has remained largely unchanged. The number of mass channels has remained the same too, with six prominent Hindi GECs vying for audience attention at any point of time.

In an industry study, we saw that channel loyalty levels have reduced over the last two years, and variety-seeking behaviour has gained prominence. Why then does this behaviour not reflect in launch ratings?

The answer is driven by what I call the ‘Wait and Watch Training’. After about half a decade of Star Plus-dominated viewership, our audiences were learning to handle a multi-channel environment from 2005-10. The idea of new launches across platforms was unnerving. What should I watch, what should I skip, what is the family consensus… it was all too complex. It was almost as if there was guilt associated with missing a new programme that was being heavily promoted.

Over time, confusion has given way to comfort and prudence. There is a growing sense of realization that the world will not come to a standstill if I miss the launch week of a new serial. I can probably catch a repeat or two to gauge the serial first. But even more than that, I can rely on WOM to get a verdict that will primarily influence my choice to sample the serial.

In effect, there’s an element of cynicism in the viewer response to launch campaigns today, which triggers this Wait and Watch behaviour. Too many launches have flattered to deceive in the past. Also, many serials promise a lot in the first few weeks, and then eventually lose their mojo. This takes away the premium-ness from a launch. It’s not an event any more. It’s just a new serial, like many others that came and went.

For ‘event launches’, we will need exceptionally differentiated content. Will ’24′ be the answer? Let time decide.

This post first appeared on mxmindia.com, on my weekly column ‘TV Trail’

Posted in Hindi GECs, Television | Tagged , | 1 Comment

Censorship Woes: Intolerantly Yours

Posted on April 21, 2013 by

In what must be a world record, the name of a TV programme was changed on the day of its launch this week. Colors renamed its Punjab-based family social from Gurbani to Bani, evidently to avoid religious backlash. For those who don’t know, Gurbani (meaning religious compositions of Sikh Gurus) is the name of the lead female character in the show. Naming a character Gurbani could possibly not connote anything but respect for the religion.

In October last year, Sushma Swaraj picked up the “issue” of the name “Radha” being used in a song from Karan Johar’s Student Of The Year. At a public event, where she was presumably representing herself as a leader of the nation, she spent considerable time wondering why the girl in the song could not have been called something else. The crowd, obviously representing her party’s support, cheered her on.

That the song went onto become one of the biggest chartbusters of the year and continues to still feature prominently on the charts is another matter altogether. I believe Johar just got lucky. Some other day, right-wing groups may have forced him to change or delete the song from the film. Remember what happened to Wake Up Sid (Bombay vs. Mumbai) and My Name Is Khan (SRK’s comments on Pakistan cricketers being a part of IPL)!

Crime Patrol has run into trouble twice this year, when court orders stayed telecast of episodes based on Delhi gangrape and those involving political bigwigs from Haryana. Blogs and social networking accounts are suspended or forced to shut down routinely, often for reasons laughably fragile. And of course, there’s the recent case of Vishwaroopam too.

Today, if I look at some of the content we used to produce in the 80s, I am amazed how that ever got through. But that’s the reality. That social and political intolerance in our country has increased with each passing decade.

What worries me considerably is that none of this intolerance represents any legitimate view. It is not the mass public opinion and it is not a constitutional view either. It is merely the view of a section (often miniscule) of the society, trying to make their presence felt, to gain publicity and further their agendas.

But here’s the catch. If it had been some other media, say newspapers (or even news channels), the legal system would have to approve of it as “freedom of speech”. But when it comes to entertainment, managing to obtain a stay order or sending a threat note (sometimes both come coincidentally on the same day) is child’s play.

Producers and channels are increasingly concerned about this growing phenomenon. Many have Plan-Bs ready as a part of their pre-production, to handle resistance if and when it comes. In effect, the industry is now beginning to administer self-censorship, out of plain fear.

It’s easy to say that broadcasters or filmmakers allow this to happen to them, by giving in. But ask a channel on the Monday of a launch, or a producer on the Friday of his film’s release, and he will tell you that his options are limited to just one in number.

The I&B ministry has to think about moving from a regulatory mindset to a growth mindset for the entertainment business. Otherwise, we should charge them for showing apathy to a key element of popular Indian culture – mass entertainment. And let them get a stay order on that!

This post first appeared on mxmindia.com, on my weekly column ‘TV Trail’

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The Other Side Of The ‘Too Much Cricket’ Debate

Posted on March 27, 2013 by

Back in the 80s, when I first started watching live cricket, there was a certain aura and anticipation each match, however routine, carried with it. Be it waking up early for live broadcasts from Australia, or listening to commentary on earphone-enabled transistor radios in the classroom or, in cases when there was no TV telecast or commentary (e.g. some India tests on foreign soil), being glued to the hourly AIR news bulletins for a score update – Cricket was important.

Memories of the matches I watched between 1984-1993 are still vivid, including specifics like commentary, team details and scorecards. I still watch cricket and that kind of vivid memory exists for key matches like World Cup games or important Test series held over the last two decades. But in between these important games are hundreds of other games that I have no recollection of!

The debate around “too much cricket” indeed seems real. India played a record 43 ODIs in 1999, vis-à-vis an average of about 18 per year in the 1985-1992 period. Of course, T20 cricket, including the IPL, compounds the too-much factor, even though Test cricket levels have hovered around an average of 10-12 Tests per year for a while now.

It’s not wrong to say that an “overdose” of any form of entertainment or leisure can lead to depletion in interest over time. However, there is a key component in the too-much-cricket debate that is never spoken of. The aspect that I call: Too Much Entertainment.

Most of the cricket in the 80s and the early 90s was in an environment free of satellite television. Cricket, when it was telecast on DD, was the only thing to watch. All eyes would focus on a game, even if it was an inconsequential one, such as some of the utterly random tournaments held in Sharjah in the late 80s.

In the 90s, as cable & satellite recruited more audiences, options began to multiply. India was playing a crazy amount of ODI cricket in this decade, peaking to that shocking number of 43 ODIs by 1999. The average for the 1996-2000 period was 37 ODIs a year. Yet, the clutter was never felt or spoken about as much as today, because other entertainment options were fewer in number.

Cricket fans (mostly men) had only about a dozen non-cricket channels to watch, which often carrying content targeted at women audiences anyway. It’s in the early 2000s that the satellite boom really made its impact felt, after KBC and Kyunkii Saas entered our lives in the year 2000. As the medium of television realised its true potential, it also created a problem of plenty. There was too much entertainment all around, and cricket occupied a much smaller share of this offering, only because the offering itself had grown in size.

The average number of ODIs India played in the decade of 2000s was 29, down from the 37 number mentioned above. But ironically, this was the period when the talk of too much cricket really gathered momentum. In reality though, it was not too much cricket, but roughly similar amount of cricket as a part of a too-much-entertainment environment.

The later half of the last decade complicated this matter even further, with the emergence of Internet as a strong entertainment delivery medium for the urban markets. That, along with the launch of the IPL in 2008, means that the too-much-cricket debate is here to stay for good.

Yes, cricket viewership may have dipped over years, but so has the viewership of most other genres. Top TV serials today deliver a percentage viewership (TVR) of less than half of what they used to about five years ago. New fiction launches rarely open at anything above 2.5 TVR, vis-a-vis 5+ TVR upto 2009. In contrast, cricket viewership for key events has shown only a 20-25% slide, and there have been games that have been immune to even this.

The too-much-entertainment environment is here to stay. It means too many films, too many songs, too many channels, too many serials, too many reality shows, too many websites, too many Facebook friends, etc. Too much cricket will always be a part of this list.

But the best in each category shall survive this overdose environment. There may be too many films, but a film like 3 Idiots will find its place in the clutter. Similarly, TV programs like KBC, Balika Vadhu, Taarak Mehta or Diya Aur Baati Hum shall find their place while the lesser ones fight the fragmentation. The rule is not very different for cricket either. The inconsequential matches (none less than India playing Sri Lanka in bilateral series over and over again) are the ones that tarnish the image of the sport, giving it the too-much perceptions and lower ratings.

The only way to counter an overdose perception is to create a perception of consistent quality. Picking the right oppositions and tournaments to play is the key, not the number of games itself. Being the cricketing superpower that we are, that’s the least we can command!

This post first appeared on mxmindia.com, on my weekly column ‘TV Trail’

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Kahaani To Kai Po Che: The Changing Content Paradigm

Posted on February 24, 2013 by

By all accounts, 2011 was a bad year for Hindi cinema. Yes, several films grossed well at the box office. It was also the year when the 100cr club came into prominence, with five films crossing the much-hyped mark. But behind all the business success was a sense of hollowness on the content front. Only an odd Zindagi Na Milegi Dobara and Singham managed to achieve what a film ultimately craves for – box office and audience likeability.

Ironically, the industry, till recently, equated good box office with good audience likeability. So, we hear things like “Fab opening. Thanks for loving the film.” In another piece (here), I wrote about WOM (Word Of Mouth), where we saw that how a film sustains from its first day to its lifetime business is a measure of its audience likeability.

2012 was different. Kahaani opened low, but managed to cross several mainstream films to register a lifetime business a Shahid Kapoor or John Abraham film will crave for. Then came Vicky Donor, which achieved the same feat. Vicky Donor’s success was even more admirable because it had no star value at all. Kahaani at least had Vidya ‘The Dirty Picture’ Balan. Later in the year, Barfi and Oh My God grew by leaps and bounds, and while the former had Ranbir Kapoor in the lead, it became the first film since 3 Idiots to enter the 100cr club on the strength of its content and not its starcast or marketing.

2013 has started very well. Both Special 26 and ABCD had modest openings, but managed to sustain well over two weeks, and are still going strong, albeit with lesser shows and theatres. This weekend, we saw the release of a film that defied all box office conventions. Kai Po Che didn’t have any of the three factors a box office friendly needs to. One, it did not have any star cast value at all. Two, it did not belong to a popular, mainstream genre (i.e. comedy, action, romance or college films). Three, it did not have hit music at the time of release (Amit Trivedi’s soulful music did not cut through the masses, with only one song – Manja – featuring on our consumer charts at no. 15 in the week of release).

Expectedly, Kai Po Che did not have a huge opening. But a 4 cr start for a film of this nature is big in its own way. The campaign tracking suggested that the film should have opened at 3.2 cr or so. But the WOM spread during the day, and as urban audience thronged cinemas on Friday night, the number soared. They soared further on Saturday and Sunday, and the flight has only just taken off. March is as open a month as any, and you can expect Kai Po Che to scale great heights.

If, at the start of 2012, you would have been told that about five films (can also add Paan Singh Tomar to the list, though its base was low) will manage to break box office conventions and become winners purely on strength of their content, making money as well as scoring high on audience likeability, any Hindi film fan would have taken it. Now, we are greedy and want more. Heartening!

What I found even more heartening, though, is that some of the 100 cr type of films have under-delivered vis-a-vis expectations of late. After Rowdy Rathore’s success, there seemed a sense of fatigue with this genre. Bol Bachchan did well enough. But Khiladi 786 did not sustain too well. And then came the real shocker: Dabangg 2 could not build on the revenue of its predecessor, ending with business roughly at the same level as the first film in the franchise.

Is there fatigue? Early trends seem to suggest that in the urban elite audience (also called “high-end multiplex” audience), there is a growing irritation at the sameness of this cinema. This is not to say that these films are being rejected (Dabangg 2 had a fairly decent WOM score). But their sheen is reducing, and the curve is definitely not moving upward.

Himmatwala will be a good test of this trend. We surely don’t expect the film to be a content-based masterpiece. We also know that 100 cr may not be very tough for a film like Himmatwala, given the huge release scale and promotions. But if films like Khiladi 786, Dabangg 2 and Himmatwala hit their glass ceilings set by their predecessors from 2010-11, while content films with lesser known stars continue to define new benchmarks for their type of cinema, we know where we are heading. In a very good direction!

After 3 Idiots (90), no film has crossed the 80-mark on our WOM index. But several content films from 2012-13 have crossed the 70-mark, led by Barfi at 78. We will know in the coming week if Kai Po Che manages to break the 80-barrier. I’m rooting for it personally. Even if it doesn’t, we have three films in the 70+ bracket already – Special 26, ABCD and (in all probability) Kai Po Che. And it’s only February yet!

More power to our audiences who have brought about this change. May their tribe grow.

Posted in Box Office, Films | Tagged , | 7 Comments

TV Wala Romance… Err… Love!

Posted on February 22, 2013 by

India “celebrated” a largely incident-free Valentine’s Day this year. In the past, Feb 14 has managed to irk the moral police, who have objected to V-Day on account of its foreign origin, as well as for the public display of affection that comes with it.

But despite (or probably aided by) the protests over years, Valentine’s Day has found its way into the mainstream in India.  For example, over the last three years, box office collections on V-Day increase by around 20%, despite it being a non-holiday weekday. Every year at this time, social media is abuzz with V-Day content, ranging from outright mushy to outright hilarious.

I scanned the telly last night to see if there was any V-Day content being offered. There wasn’t much that I could find. The odd reference or two was strictly in the passing, with no real content being woven around it. Even the most “romantic” serials on television didn’t acknowledge the day.

Contrast this to how television celebrates other special days or festivals. Karva Chauth gets extended coverage in many serials, with high points built around the festival lasting a month at times. In January, at least six serials celebrated Lohri, essentially a Punjabi festival, with such enthusiasm you would have been excused for assuming Lohri is India’s Christmas.

However, when it comes to “love”, the response is muted. Our cinema, targeting the college audiences as a primary segment, lapped up the V-Day opportunity many years ago. Yash Chopra filmed an entire song (Pyaar kar) in Dil To Pagal Hai in a V-Day situation back in 1997. But in television, there is little place for the young audiences. It’s ‘family wala pyaar’ that works in prime time, and V-Day doesn’t fit that box very well.

About four years ago, while researching several show concepts for television, I encountered the nuances of the romance genre on television. It started with the genre name itself. The word “romantic” generally inspired giggles in consumer groups, while “love story” was spoken of as a matter of fact.

Over time, it became apparent to me that “romantic” in India has a definite sexual connotation attached to it. It suggests physicality of love – hugging or holding hands in public, kissing and making-out. “Love”, on the other hand, is clean and pure. It is about an emotion attached to a person and a relationship. It is also about adjusting and sacrifice. Hence, two clear sub-genres exist: Romantic and love-story.

Several serials on leading GECs have addressed the love-story genre successfully over years. However, there have been only a few, sporadic attempts at offering romance in prime time. Star One was the flag-bearer of this genre, and that positioning proved limiting for the channel over time.

Housewives, a core constituent of the TV puzzle, are quite dismissive of romance as such, often branding it “outdoor wali love story”. But give them a Ram-Priya, Archana-Maanav or Sandhya-Suraj, and they are at home, literally, with the real thing: the familiar “indoor wali love story”.

Yes, the indoor love stories too get physical, but that’s a rare highpoint in them, than a routine. Back in 2011,about six serials were running in the ‘married but not consummated yet’ stage simultaneously!

We may as well leave the romance to the movies. The home-made love stories are doing just fine.

This post first appeared on mxmindia.com, on my weekly column ‘TV Trail’

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Top 50 Hindi Film Songs Of 2012

Posted on February 16, 2013 by

The Top 50 Songs post from 2011 was by far the most searched and most read report on this blog last year. So here goes the 2012 version.

Given below is the ranking of the Top 50 songs of 2011, based on data compiled from Ormax Media’s weekly music popularity charts Heartbeats. Note that songs only from the films that released in 2011 have been considered.

GHB = Gross Heartbeats = Total number of HB points earned by a song during its entire lifetime (including projected future scores of songs still on the charts)

HB points are a combination of recall and likability, and a true measure of a song’s popularity amongst the audiences.

Rank Song Film GHB
1 Chikni Chameli Agneepath 1391
2 Fevicol Se Dabangg 2 1136
3 Chinta Ta Ta Rowdy Rathore 840
4 Tumhi Ho Bandhu Cocktail 741
5 Mashallah Ek Tha Tiger 706
6 Kolaveri Di 3 (Tamil) 669
7 Pungi Agent Vinod 637
8 Anarkali Housefull 2 635
9 Hookah Bar Khiladi 786 617
10 Dagabaaz Re Dabangg 2 590
11 Balma Khiladi 786 589
12 Daaru Desi Cocktail 586
13 Pani Da Rang Vicky Donor 585
14 The Disco Song Student Of The Year 584
15 Tu Hi Mera Jannat 2 533
16 Rani Tu Main Raja Son Of Sardaar 533
17 Aa Re Pritam Pyaare Rowdy Rathore 491
18 Deva Shree Ganesha Agneepath 479
19 Saans Jab Tak Hai Jaan 457
20 Ishq Wala Love Student Of The Year 426
21 Chalao Na Naino Se Bol Bachchan 424
22 Radha Student Of The Year 416
23 Challa Jab Tak Hai Jaan 397
24 Lonely Khiladi 786 389
25 Go Go Govinda Oh My God! 377
26 Halkat Jawani Heroine 362
27 Pareshaan Ishaqzaade 358
28 Pandeyji Seeti Dabangg 2 353
29 Dhadang Dhang Rowdy Rathore 345
30 Abhi Abhi Jism 2 316
31 Jee Le Zara Talaash 315
32 Long Drive Khiladi 786 308
33 Ek Main Aur Ekk Tu Ek Main Aur Ekk Tu 304
34 Piya O Re Piya Tere Naal Love… 291
35 Ala Barfi Barfi! 289
36 Papa Toh Band Housefull 2 283
37 Second Hand Jawani Cocktail 280
38 Banjaara Ek Tha Tiger 279
39 Son Of Sardaar Son Of Sardaar 276
40 Tera Deedaar Hua Jannat 2 271
41 Hosanna Ekk Deewana Tha 252
42 Saiyaara Ek Tha Tiger 245
43 Po Po Son Of Sardaar 243
44 Maula Jism 2 236
45 Tujhe Sochta Hoon Jannat 2 234
46 Deewana Kar Raha Raaz 3 224
47 Right Now Now Housefull 2 221
48 Ishaqzaade Ishaqzaade 217
49 Bichhdann Son Of Sardaar 214
50 Ishq Shava Jab Tak Hai Jaan 208
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